Outcomes theory knowledge base (Org)

This knowledge base provides a systematic treatment of outcomes theory as applied to managing the performance of organizations, programs, policies and collaborations [Org]. This site is for those interested in theory. If you want a practical implementation of this theory that can be used to design and implement working outcomes, evaluation, monitoring and performance management systems, you should use Systematic Outcomes Analysis based on the Outcomes Is It Working Analysis (OIIWA) approach from www.oiiwa.org site. If using any ideas or material from this knowledge base please cite this reference as: Duignan, P. (2005-insert current year) Insert name of page in Outcomes Theory Knowledge Base (Organizational) [Available at www.outcomestheory.org]. Any comments on any aspect of this knowledge base appreciated, please send to paul (at) parkerduignan.com.

Definitions (Org) [P9]

This page sets out all of the major definitions used within outcomes theory. As outcomes theory continues to evolve these definitions may be refined and new definitions added. 

Accountability level

Definition: An accountability focus level is the level within an intervention organization's outcomes hierarchy at which indicators/outcomes are located for which they are being held accountable by their control organization. It should be noted that this level may be higher up an outcomes hierarchy for different outcomes because it depends on the level to which attribution can be taken. Also audience stakeholders may hold an intervention organization accountable at other (either higher or lower) levels of the intervention organization's outcomes hierarchy. [Provisional only].

Accountability indicator/outcome set

Definition: An accountability indicator/outcomes set is the set of indicators/outcomes which have been agreed upon by the control organization and the intervention organization as establishing exactly what the intervention organization will be held accountable for. [Provisional only]. [See also Principles: Accountability specification (contracting) between control and intervention organizations(Org)[P17]).

Accountable outcome

Definition: An outcome is accountable if an intervention organization receives positive or negative sanctions from its control organization as a result of changes in outcomes indicators for outcomes within the relevant outcomes hierarchy.

Accountability specification/Contracting

Definition: Specification of a set of indicators/outcomes for which an intervention organization is going to be held accountable by its control organization. Same as contracting.

Alternative outcomes hierarchy transition point

Definition: The alternative outcomes hierarchy transition point is the point at which a community of users of an outcomes hierarchy crossover to using an alternative outcomes hierarchy which, because of new evidence or analysis, they believe better represents the "cascading set of causes in the real world" than the initial hypothesized outcomes hierarchy they were previously using.  

Attributable indicator

Definition: An attributable indicator is a routinely collected outcome measurement that shows changes in outcomes which can be attributed to a specific intervention.  

Audience stakeholder

Definition: An audience stakeholder is a stakeholder which has an interest in reports of evidence and analysis in regard to an outcomes hierarchy (O), indicator measurement (I[n-att] and I[att], whole-intervention high-level outcome attribution evaluations (W) or additional lower-level evaluation (A) in regard to an outcomes system and which may or may not apply formal or informal system positive and/or negative sanction consequences as a result.

Benchmark

Definition: A benchmark is a level on an indicator which is used (by either a control and/or an intervention organization) to compare the relative performance of two or more intervention organizations which are attempting to intervene in similar outcomes hierarchies in different settings (e.g. sectors, districts, countries).

Community of users

Definition: A community of users of an outcomes hierarchy is the group of people who need to agree on an implicit or explicit set of criteria for establishing whether a causal link has been established within an outcomes hierarchy. 

Community of users validity and reliability criteria

Definition: A community of users validity and reliability criteria are the rules such a community has about the level of validity and reliability an indicator within an outcomes system needs to meet. 

Controllable outcome

Definition: A first outcome is a controllable outcome of a second outcome if the the first outcome will, in normal circumstances, always occur if the second outcome has occurred. [Provisional only]

Controller/Control organization/Supervisory organization

Definition: A controller is the same as a control organization.

Contracting/Accountability specification

Definition: Contracting is the same as accountability specification.  

Control organization/Controller/Supervisory organization

Definition: A control organization is an organization (e.g. an organization, a group of organizations acting jointly for this purpose, or an individual person within an organization) that has the authority to impose sanctions or rewards on one or more intervention organizations within an outcomes system.

Control organization's overall outcomes hierarchy

Definition: A control organization's overall outcomes hierarchy is the outcomes hierarchy which contains at its highest-level all of the outcomes which the control organization is interested in achieving. Control organizations often delegate the achievement of specific portions of this overall outcomes hierarchy (sub-outcomes hierarchies) to different intervention organizations and/or intervene directly in some sub-outcomes hierarchies (in which case they are also acting as an intervention organization in respect of that sub-outcomes hierarchy). 

Delegation - see outcomes hierarchy delegation

Intervention-related activity

Definition: Intervention-related activity (e.g. provision of funding, coordination, production of goods and services, policy or statutory change) is activity undertaken by an intervention organization with the purpose of changing, or holding constant, some of the outcomes within an outcomes hierarchy. 

Evaluation and monitoring models - see monitoring and evaluation models.

Exhaustive outcomes hierarchy

Definition: An exhaustive outcomes hierarchy is one which includes all relevant "causes in the real world" regardless of whether or not they are feasibly measurable and/or attributable in a particular context. The diagram below shows an exhaustive outcomes hierarchy where the outcomes shaded in light blue are not feasibly measurable and/or attributable but are still included within the outcomes hierarchy.

screenshot_59Extraordinary factors

Definition: Extraordinary factors are internal or external factors which are set out in formal or informal sanction reward rules as reducing the accountability of an intervention organization for influencing outcomes measurements (e.g. an example could be a major economic downturn (external factor) or the restructuring of a government organization (internal factor)).

Formal system positive and/or negative sanction rules

Definition: Formal system sanction and reward rules describe the set of formal rules regarding what sanctions or rewards can be applied to an intervention organization by a control agency, including those resulting from reports of evidence and analysis in regard to an outcomes hierarchy (O), indicator measurement (I[n-att] and I[att], whole-intervention high-level outcome attribution evaluations (W) or additional lower-level evaluation (A).

Formal and informal system positive and/or negative sanction consequences

Definition: Formal and informal system positive and/or negative sanction consequences are the sanctions which may result for a intervention organization as a result of the control organization applying formal system sanction rules; applying informal sanctions; or of audience stakeholders applying their own sanctions as a result of formal or informal reports of evidence and analysis in regard to an outcomes hierarchy (O), indicator measurement (I[n-att] and I[att], whole-intervention high-level outcome attribution evaluations (W) or additional lower-level evaluation (A).

Full intervention roll-out

Definition: Implementation of an intervention across the full timeframe, participant groups, geographical localities etc. for which it is finally intended as opposed to just a trial/pilot limited in time, participants groups, geographical localities etc. 

Full roll-out - see full intervention rollout.

Funder organization/Funder

Definition: A funder organization is an organization (e.g. an organization, a group of organizations acting jointly for this purpose, or an individual person within an organization) which provides funding or other resources for an intervention organization (see definition below) to intervene to attempt to change some outcomes within an outcomes hierarchy under the control of a control organization (see definition above).  A single organization can function as a funder, controller and intervention organization at the same time or all three can be separate organizations or individuals.  

Hawthorne effect

Definition: The Hawthorne effect is the effect on high-level outcomes produced by participant stakeholders just knowing that they are receiving an intervention.

Horizontal indicator outcomes hierarchy reach

Definition: Horizontal indicator outcomes hierarchy reach is the extent to which an indicator set (either I[n-att] or I[att]) reaches across all of the high-level outcome areas in an outcomes hierarchy.

Influencer/Influencability

Definition: An influencer of an outcome is an outcome which either singly, or together with other outcomes, causes another outcome to change. 

Influencing outcomes set completeness

Definition: Influencing outcome set completeness is the extent to which the set of influencing outcomes in an outcomes hierarchy is the full set of outcomes which influence another outcome under normal circumstances.

Indicator outcomes hierarchy reach

Definition: Indicator outcomes hierarchy illumination is the extent to which an indicator set (either I[n-att] or I[att] provides measures for all of the outcomes within an outcomes hierarchy. [See also Horizontal indicator outcomes hierarchy reach and Vertical indicator outcomes hierarchy reach].

Intervention

Definition: An intervention is a group of outcomes (causes) within any outcomes hierarchy which are initiated by one or more intervention organizations to change higher-level outcomes in an outcomes hierarchy. These outcomes (causes) are of such a nature that for a given quotient of resources they can be definitively allocated between these outcomes (causes).  They tend to be at the bottom of the outcomes hierarchy in which they are located, however, there is no reason why one outcomes hierarchy cannot be an influencer at the bottom of another hierarchy.  Interventions often go by names such as: programs, policies, organizations, treatments, projects, schemes, activity groups, units, corporate bodies, or individuals. [Provisional only].

Intervention actual start point

Definition: The intervention actual start point is the point in time when an intervention actually commences.

Intervention autonomy delegation

Definition: Intervention autonomy delegation is where a control organization has, in certain instances, delegated its decision-making powers about which interventions to use to intervene in an outcomes hierarchy. [Provisional only].

Intervention completion point/ceiling

Definition: An intervention completion point is the point in time by which an intervention needs to have been completed in order to achieve time-critical high-level outcome improvements. This is point is also known as the intervention response window ceiling.

Intervention duration

Definition: The intervention duration is the length of time it takes for an intervention to be completed. It is the length of time between the intervention potential start point and the earliest time the intervention could be completed if it was commenced at its potential start point.

screenshot_39

Intervention potential start point/floor

Definition: An intervention potential start point is the earliest point in time at which an intervention can be commenced. This is also known as the intervention response window floor.

Intervention modification time-span

Definition: The intervention modification time-span is the amount of time available to modify an intervention on the basis of feedback regarding the results of outcomes above it in an outcomes hierarchy before the intervention terminal point (ceiling) is reached. [Provisional only].

Intervention organization (intervener/influencer)

Definition: An intervention organization is a unit (e.g. an intervention, a collaboration, an organization, policy or person) which undertakes some intervention related activity within a particular outcomes system. 

Indicator outcomes hierarchy illumination

Definition: Indicator outcomes hierarchy illumination is the extent to which an indicator set (either an I[n-att] or an I[att] set) provides information about each of the outcomes within an outcomes hierarchy in an outcomes system. 

Intervention response window

Definition: An intervention response window is the time period between an intervention potential start point (floor) and the outcomes irreversibility intervention completion point (ceiling) for a particular outcomes hierarchy. 

screenshot_38

Intervention terminal point

Definition: The intervention terminal point is the point in time at which an intervention has to be completed in order to achieve the outcomes hierarchy necessary completion point (i.e. the time by which the highest-level outcomes need to be achieved). [See diagram below definition of intervention response window].

Intervention terminal point overshoot

Definition: An intervention terminal point overshoot is the situation where the intervention actual start point has been left too late and because of the length of the intervention duration it has not been able to be completed before it has passed the intervention terminal point and therefore high-level outcomes have not been achieved before the outcomes hierarchy necessary completion point.  

screenshot_40

Maintaining an outcomes focus/Managing for outcomes

Definition: Maintaining an outcomes focus is the same as managing for outcomes (see below).

Managing for outcomes/ Maintaining an outcomes focus

Definition: Managing for outcomes is an approach which (in a variety of ways depending on the particular outcomes system) requires an intervention organization to put a focus on outcomes in addition to just the outputs (goods and services) produced by its intervention(s).

Measurable outcome

Definition: An outcome is measurable if it has one or more indicators which meet a community of users validity and reliability criteria. 

Monitoring and evaluation model

Definition: The specific combination of OIIWA building blocks used in the overall monitoring and evaluation strategy for an intervention.

Normal circumstances

Definition: Normal circumstances obtain where an outcomes hierarchy has rolled-out without any extraordinary factors having occurred. [Provisional only].

Not-necessarily attributable indicators [I[n-att]

Definition: A not-necessarily attributable indicator [I[n-att] is a routinely collected measurement of an outcome which shows how the outcome is tracking but does not necessarily imply that any particular intervention has caused the change.

OIIWA monitoring and evaluation model - see monitoring and evaluation model.

OIIWA schemata

Definition: The set of fundamental building blocks of all outcomes systems as identified in outcomes theory. 

Other relevant stakeholders

Definition: Other relevant stakeholders are stakeholders apart from the control organization and intervention organization which have an interest in some, or all, of the reported indicator measurements from an outcomes system. [Provisional only].

Outcome/Cause/effect

Definition: An outcome is a cause or effect which appears in an outcomes hierarchy (the term could be replaced with the term cause/effect). Within outcomes theory (in the organizational version of the theory) all causes and effects are just known as outcomes (i.e. an outcome of a prior cause).  In particular outcomes systems the attempt is often made to distinctions between different types of outcomes through using different names (e.g. causes, causal constructs, reasons, means, ends, factors, output, activity, process, outcome, purpose, strategy, objective, goal, mission or vision). In outcomes theory the difference between different outcomes is specified in terms of their formal characteristics on outcome dimensions (e.g. measurability, attributability, accountability) rather than by using different names for outcomes. Some readers will be concerned that the use of the term outcome in outcomes theory for all types of causes/effects will erode the hard earned distinction between an output and an outcome. This distinction is usually made for polemical as much as technical reasons to get outcome system users to focus on higher-level outcomes within an outcomes hierarchy. Such readers should think in terms of causes/effects whenever the term outcome is used in outcomes theory. Making outcomes and outputs mutually exclusive which is required if taking such a polemical approach creates technical problems for outcomes systems which are avoided by calling all causes/effects outcomes and allowing a cause/effect to be both an outcome and viewed as an output in some circumstances. [Provisional only].

Outcome characteristic

Definition: An outcome characteristic is specific value that a particular outcome has on one of its dimensions.   By analogy, physical objects can vary on their colour dimension through being red, yellow or green.  Similarly, outcomes can differ on their measurability dimension by being easy, moderately or hard to measure. 

Outcome dimension

Definition: An outcome dimension describes a way in which outcomes can vary from each other. By analogy, physical objects can vary on the dimensions of: height, weight, colour, texture etc.  The dimensions on which outcomes management system elements can vary include: influencibility, controllability, measurability, attributability, accountability, reversibility,  response consistency (vs tipping-point) and lag.  

Outcomes hierarchy

Definition: An outcomes hierarchy is a 'cascading set of causes in the real world'.  These can be viewed as elements (for the ease of presentation called outcomes in this knowledge base) where any one element can be caused by one (or more) other element(s) and can, in turn, itself cause other elements to occur or not occur. [See Outcomes hierarchy definition (Org)[P4].

Outcomes hierarchy actualization/completion point

Definition: An outcomes hierarchy actualization describes the point in time where the outcomes in an outcomes hierarchy should have occurred and so all higher-level outcomes should also have occurred if the outcomes hierarchy is an accurate "cascading set of causes in the real world". [Provisional only].

Outcomes hierarchy delegation

Definition: Outcomes hierarchy delegation is the act by which a control organization hands responsibility for attempting to achieve an outcomes hierarchy to an intervention organization. Separate from such delegation is the issue of which outcomes within the outcomes hierarchy the intervention organization will be held accountable for achieving.  

Outcomes hierarchy necessary completion point

Definition: An outcomes hierarchy necessary completion point is the point in time by which the highest-level outcomes within the outcomes hierarchy need to be achieved.

Outcomes hierarchy response time

Definition: An outcomes hierarchy's response time is defined as - the amount of time it takes for the high-level outcomes within an outcomes hierarchy to change in response to an intervention.

screenshot_37

Outcome response lag

Definition: An outcome response lag is the length of time between a lower level outcome occurring and the outcome it affects occurring. It may range from zero to many years. [Provisional only].

Outcome trend (or proof of change) establishment time

Definition: The outcome trend (or proof of change) establishment time is the length of time required for a community of users to accept that a trend has been established, or that there has been a specific change, in an outcome. This often relies on the community of users decision rules regarding how they manage statistical variation in indicator measurements. [Provisional only].

Output

Definition: Goods or services produced by an intervention organization as part of one of its interventions. Outputs can be viewed as measurable, attributable and accountable outcomes (where outcome is used, as in outcomes theory, as term for a cause/effect at any level. Demanding that the term output be mutually exclusive of the term outcome in an outcomes system can, in certain conditions, lead to technical difficulties.

Participant stakeholder

Definition: 

Pilot/trial

Definition: Intensive monitoring and/or evaluation of an intervention  which is being implemented earlier than the full intervention rollout, with a limited group or in a limited locality for the purposes of optimizing full intervention rollout.

Placebo

Definition: A placebo is a surrogate for an intervention which creates the same participant expectations as the intervention without having any additional effect on high-level outcomes over an above the expectancy effect. [Provisional only]

Reasonable autonomy in intervention activity selection

Definition: An intervention organization's reasonable autonomy in intervention activity selection occurs where its control organization allows it a reasonable amount of autonomy in the selection of the intervention activities it undertakes. Some intervention organizations  have very little discretion in the interventions they can undertake (for instance for resourcing, political, statutory or public relations reasons).  On the other hand, some intervention organizations have a great deal of discretion in the range of intervention actions they can select from in their attempts to influence outcomes.  

Response consistency (vs tipping-point) outcome

Definition: An outcome has response consistency to the extent that it varies in a steady and consistent manner in response to changes in the lower level outcome(s) which cause it. It has instability to the extent that there are tipping points at which it suddenly changes more rapidly in response to changes in the lower level outcomes which influence it. For instance, through amplifying feedback loops. This is also known as non-linearity.

Reversible outcome

Definition: An outcome is reversible if a change in it which is produced by a change in a lower level outcome is reversible when the lower level outcome reverts to its original level.

Sub-outcomes hierarchy

Definition: A sub-outcomes hierarchy is a part of a control organization's overall outcomes hierarchy.  

Sub-outcomes hierarchy full set

Definition: A sub-outcomes hierarchy full set is the complete set of sub-outcomes hierarchies which are needed to achieve a control organization's overall outcomes hierarchy.

Target/Outcome achievement criteria

Definition: A target describes a level on an indicator which is being sought by intervening in an outcomes hierarchy. 

Truncated outcomes hierarchy

Definition: A truncated outcomes hierarchy is one which only includes feasibly measurable and/or attributable outcomes as in diagram below where only the non-grayed-out outcomes would be included in the truncated outcomes hierarchy. 

screenshot_60

Vertical indicator outcomes hierarchy reach

Definition: Vertical indicator outcomes hierarchy reach is the extent to which an indicator set (either I[n-att] or I[att]) reaches up its relevant outcomes hierarchy.

Notes:

[1] The dimensions and characteristics of elements could have been referred to as variables and values respectively within outcomes theory.  However to do this would risk introducing some confusion when discussing the difference, for example, between an outcome and its indicators.  This is because in outcomes contexts, the term variable is generally associated with outcome measurement (indicators) rather than the conceptual specification of outcomes as elements in an outcomes system which is being referred to here under the terms dimensions and characteristics.    

V1-1

Copyright Dr Paul Duignan 2005 www.outcomestheory.org